In the Vatican, there is a popular saying that goes like this: “You enter a conclave as a pope, you come out as a cardinal.”
The sentence implies that the sacred and secret process of choosing a pope - the Vicar of Christ on Earth - is not a popularity contest, but a divinely inspired election led by the princes of the Church.
Still, there are always favorites - known as “papabili” - who attend a conclave with at least some of the qualities necessary to be pope.
Any baptized Catholic male is eligible, although only cardinals have been selected since 1378. The winner must receive at least two-thirds of the votes from those cardinals under 80 years old and therefore eligible to participate. Pope Francis appointed the vast majority of the current electors, often choosing men who share his pastoral priorities, suggesting continuity rather than rupture.
Anyone who tries to obstruct the outcome should remember that Jorge Mario Bergoglio was considered too old to be elected pope in 2013, when he was 76 years old, and that Karol Wojtyla was not on any list of favorites for the 1978 conclave, which elected him Pope John Paul II.
Some possible candidates to succeed Francis:
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Born in Hungary on June 25, 1952, the Archbishop of Budapest and Hungarian Primate was elected twice as head of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, suggesting that he enjoys the esteem of the European cardinals who make up the largest bloc of electors.
In that position, Erdo met many African cardinals because the council organizes periodic sessions with the episcopal conferences of that continent. Erdo had even more exposure when he helped organize Pope Francis’ Vatican meetings on the family in 2014 and 2015 and delivered key speeches, as well as during the papal visits to Budapest in 2021 and 2023.
Cardinal Reinhard Marx
Born in Germany on September 21, 1953, the Archbishop of Munich and Freising was chosen by Pope Francis as a key advisor in 2013. Subsequently, Marx was appointed to lead the council that oversaw the finances of the Vatican during the implementation of reforms and an adjustment to cut expenses.
The former president of the German Bishops’ Conference was a staunch supporter of the controversial “synodal path” dialogue process in the Church of his country, which began in 2020 in response to the clergy sexual abuse scandal. As a result, he is viewed skeptically by conservatives who saw the process as a threat to the unity of the Church, as it involved discussing topics such as celibacy, homosexuality, and the ordination of women.
Marx made headlines in 2021 when he offered to resign as Archbishop to atone for the terrible history of abuse within the German Church, but Francis quickly rejected his resignation.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet
Born in Canada on June 8, 1944, he led the influential office of bishops at the Vatican for over a decade, overseeing the monitoring of potential candidates to head dioceses around the world.
Francis kept Ouellet in office until 2023, even though he was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI, and thus helped select the most dogmatic bishops favored by the German pontiff.
Even being more conservative than Francis, Ouellet selected bishops with a pastoral mindset to reflect the pope’s belief that bishops should immerse themselves in the “smell of their sheep.”
Ouellet defended priestly celibacy and maintained the prohibition of the ordination of women, but he called for women to have a more significant role in the governance of the institution.
He has good contacts with the Latin American Church, having headed the Pontifical Commission for Latin America for over a decade.
Since 2019, his office has been in charge of investigating bishops accused of covering up abusive priests, a task that may not have made him any friends among those sanctioned, but that could have also provided him with a lot of confidential and possibly compromising information about his fellow cardinals.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Born in Italy on January 17, 1955, he has been Secretary of State for Francis since 2014. A veteran Vatican diplomat, he oversaw the controversial agreement between the Holy See and China on the appointment of bishops and was involved—though not accused—in the Vatican’s failed investment in a real estate company in London that led to the trial of another cardinal and nine other individuals in 2021.
Parolin, former ambassador in Venezuela, knows the Latin American church well. He would be seen as someone who would continue the tradition of Francis, but more sober and diplomatic, and who would return an Italian to the papacy after Saint John Paul II (Poland), Benedict (Germany), and Francis (Argentina).
However, Parolin does not have real pastoral experience. His links to the London scandal, in which his office lost tens of millions of dollars in donations from the faithful due to bad business deals and shady businessmen, could work against him.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
Born in Guinea on January 15, 1945, the former —now retired— head of the Office for the Liturgical Celebrations of the Supreme Pontiff long raised hopes of having an African pope. Beloved by conservatives, he would enhance a return to the dogmatic and liturgical papacies of St. John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
Sarah, who had led the Pontifical Council Cor Unum, clashed several times with Francis. The most serious was when he and Benedict wrote a book defending the “need” for the continuity of celibacy. The book came out while Francis was considering whether to allow the ordination of married men to address the shortage of clergy in the Amazon. The implication was that Sarah had manipulated Benedict to lend his name and moral authority to a book that seemed to be a counterweight to the current pope’s teachings.
Francis fired Benedict’s secretary and several months later removed Sarah when he turned 75. Sarah’s supporters regretted that the episode harmed her chances of becoming pope.
Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn
Born in Austria on January 22, 1945, and Archbishop of Vienna, he was a student of Benedict and, therefore, seems to have the doctrinal academic skills to attract conservatives. However, he was associated with one of the most controversial measures of Francis by defending his approach to divorced and civilly remarried Catholics as an “organic development of doctrine”, rather than the rupture that some conservatives held. Schoenborn’s parents divorced when he was a teenager, so the issue affects him personally.
He also received criticism from the Vatican for his refusal to sanction high-ranking sexual abusers, including his predecessor as Archbishop of Vienna. Schönborn has expressed his support for civil unions and for women as deaconesses, and played a decisive role in editing the 1992 update of the Catechism of the Catholic Church, the Church’s teaching manual that Benedict had led when he headed the Vatican’s doctrinal office.
Cardinal Luis Tagle
Born in the Philippines on June 21, 1957, he seems to be Francis’ chosen one to become the first Asian pope. Francis brought the popular Archbishop of Manila to Rome to lead the Vatican’s missionary evangelization office, which serves the needs of the Catholic Church in much of Asia and Africa. His role gained greater importance when Francis reformed the Vatican’s bureaucracy and elevated the importance of his evangelization office.
Tagle often cites his Chinese lineage - his maternal grandmother was part of a Chinese family that moved to the Philippines - and is known to get emotional when he talks about his childhood.
Although he has pastoral, Vatican, and administrative experience—having led the Vatican federation of charitable groups Caritas Internationalis before permanently moving to Rome—Tagle would be on the younger side to be elected pope and the cardinals may prefer a candidate of older age, whose papacy would be shorter.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Born in Italy on October 11, 1955, the Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Episcopal Conference, elected in 2022, is closely affiliated with the Community of Sant’Egidio, a Catholic charity organization based in Rome that was influential during the papacy of Francis, particularly in interreligious dialogue.
Zuppi was part of the Sant’Egidio team, which helped negotiate the end of the civil war in Mozambique in the 1990s and was appointed as Pope Francis’ peace envoy for the war in Russia in Ukraine.
Francisco appointed him cardinal in 2019 and then made it clear that he wanted him in charge of the bishops of Italy, a sign of his admiration for the prelate who, like Francisco, is known as a “street priest”.
In another sign of his progressive inclinations and his closeness to Francis, Zuppi wrote the introduction to the Italian edition of “Building a Bridge,” by Reverend James Martin, an American Jesuit, about the need for the Church to improve its outreach to the LGBTQ+ community.
Zuppi would be a candidate in the tradition of Francis to minister to the marginalized, although his relative youth would play against him for the cardinals seeking a short papacy. Zuppi’s family had strong institutional ties: his father worked for the Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano and his mother was the niece of Cardinal Carlo Confalonieri, dean of the College of Cardinals in the 1960s and 1970s.
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What is the process for choosing the new pope?
The death or resignation of a pope marks the beginning of a centuries-old ritual that involves the cardinals making sacred oaths to choose a successor, perforating the ballots with a needle and thread after counting them, and then burning them to produce white or black smoke that indicates whether there is a new leader for the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics.
The election is shrouded in secrecy, and the cardinals are forbidden from communicating to the outside world what happened during the voting in the conclave, which takes place behind the frescoed walls of the Sistine Chapel.
Pope John Paul II rewrote the regulations on papal elections in a 1996 document that remains largely in force, although Pope Benedict XVI amended it twice before resigning.
This is what happens when a pope dies or resigns, a period known as “sede vacante”.
Who is in charge?
If a pope dies, the camerlengo must certify the death and seal the papal apartment. He himself oversees the administrative and financial tasks of the Holy See until a new pope takes office.
The mainly ceremonial position of Camerlengo is currently held by Cardinal Kevin Farrell, an American of Irish descent who now leads the Vatican’s office for laypeople.
Almost all prefects of the Vatican offices lose their jobs when a pope dies, but some remain, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the master of liturgical ceremonies, who plays a key role in preparing for the conclave.
The Dean of the College of Cardinals convenes the other cardinals for the funeral, presiding over the mass before the conclave begins. This position is currently held by Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, retired head of the Vatican’s office for bishops.
What is logistics?
The death of a pontiff initiates a precise sequence of rituals that include confirming the death at the pope’s residence, moving the coffin to St. Peter’s Basilica for public viewing, a funeral mass, and the burial. The burial must take place between the fourth and sixth day after his death.
After the funeral, there are nine days of official mourning, known as “novendiali”.
During this time, the cardinals arrive in Rome. In order for everyone to have enough time to gather, the conclave must begin between 15 and 20 days after the “sede vacante” is declared, although it can start earlier if the cardinals agree.
Who can choose a pope?
Only cardinals under 80 years old can vote, and current regulations limit the number of electors to 120. According to the latest updated statistics from the Vatican, there were 136 cardinals under 80 years old eligible to vote, although that number may change before the conclave begins.
People over 80 years old cannot vote, but they can participate in meetings prior to the conclave, known as general congregations, where issues of the Church are discussed. It was in these meetings in 2013 when the then Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio spoke about the need for the Church to go to the “existential peripheries” to find those who are suffering, an improvised speech that helped his election.
Who are the possible candidates?
Any Catholic male who has been baptized is eligible, although only cardinals have been selected since 1378. Here are some notable candidates currently:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin from Italy, 70 years old, Secretary of State of Francis and a veteran Vatican diplomat.
- Cardinal Marc Ouellet from Canada, 80 years old, head of the Vatican’s office of bishops from 2010 to 2023.
-- Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn of Vienna, 80 years old, a student of Pope Benedict XVI and, therefore, potentially attractive to conservatives.
-- Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines, 67 years old, brought by Francis to lead the vast missionary office of the Vatican.
-- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi from Italy, 69 years old, a protege of Francis who led the conference of Italian bishops.
How is the election carried out?
A first vote is held in the Sistine Chapel the afternoon after the initial mass. If no pope is elected, two votes are held each morning and two each afternoon in the following days.
Ballots are rectangular sheets of paper with the words “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” (“I choose as the Supreme Pontiff”) written at the top, with a space for a name.
Each cardinal makes their choice, folds the paper in half, walks to the front of the chapel, and declares: “I call upon Christ the Lord as my witness, who will be my judge, so that my vote is given to the one who I believe before God should be chosen.”
Then place the ticket in a tray and pour it into a receptacle.
Three designated cardinals, known as scrutineers, review each ballot to see if it was filled out correctly. Each name is read out loud and counted, and the results are announced to the conclave after each round.
If no one gets the necessary two-thirds of the votes, the ballots are pierced with a needle and thread, which is then knotted and placed in a tray, and another round of voting is prepared.
Benedict modified some of the rules of John Paul II’s 1996 conclave, notably excluding his view that a pope could be elected by a simple majority if the voting was deadlocked. Benedict decreed that a two-thirds majority is always needed, no matter how long it takes. He did this to prevent the cardinals from waiting the 12 days prescribed by John Paul II and then pushing through a candidate with a slim majority.
And what about secrecy?
Benedict also reinforced the oath of secrecy in the conclave, making it clear that anyone who reveals what happened inside would face automatic excommunication.
In John Paul II’s rules, excommunication was always a possibility, but Benedict XVI revised the oath taken by liturgical assistants and secretaries to make it explicit, stating that they must maintain “absolute and perpetual secrecy” and refrain from using any audio or video recording devices.
Now they declare: “I swear this oath fully aware that its breach will incur the penalty of automatic excommunication reserved to the Apostolic See. So help me, God, and these Holy Gospels, which I touch with my hand.”
Cardinals are also required to keep secrets, although the threat of excommunication only explicitly looms over them if it is discovered that they accepted payment for their vote, allowed secular powers to influence them, or signed agreements with other cardinals to support a candidate.
Do we have potatoes?
Once the ballots have been perforated, they are burned in a cylindrical stove at the end of the voting session. The black smoke from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel means that no decision has been reached. White smoke indicates that the cardinals have chosen a pope and that he has accepted.
Chemical cartridges are added to ensure there is no confusion about the color. To produce black smoke, a cartridge containing potassium perchlorate, anthracene (a component of coal tar), and sulfur is burned along with the ballots. For white smoke, a cartridge of potassium chlorate, lactose, and chloroform resin is burned along with the ballots.
Bells also ring out to announce the election of a pope more clearly.
The new pope is presented from the balcony overlooking St. Peter’s Square with the words: “Habemus Papam!” (in Latin “We have a Pope!”) and the chosen papal name.
Then the new pope emerges and gives his first blessing.
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