After the United Nations activated the Planetary Security Protocol due to the possibility of the asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, many questions have arisen, including: Where will it fall? What could the impact cause? How dangerous is it? What is its level of reach?
The Near Earth Object Coordination Center of the European Space Agency (ESA) reported that they estimate the asteroid to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter.
The danger level is 3 on the Turí scale, which ranges from 0 to 10. Astrophysicist Rodrigo González Peinado explained on his X account @rodrigogpeinado that a level 3 implies the attention of astronomers and a possible collision with localized destruction within a 50 km radius, although it is normal for new observations to lower its level to 0.
In the constant monitoring of YR4, organizations such as the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) of the United Nations, NASA, and ESA are involved.
The AFP reported that Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at the US space agency NASA, stated that "you get observations, then they disappear again. This one seemed to have the potential to stay." This same news agency also mentioned that according to Betts "the odds are very good that not only will it not hit Earth, but, at some point in the next few months or years, that probability will reach zero."
Countries that could be affected by the asteroid YR4 in 2032
Astrophysicist González Peinado highlighted that "in the event that it finally impacts, it is most likely to fall into the ocean." However, ABC reported that if asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts on solid ground, the countries "potentially affected" could be Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela (in northern South America), as well as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
If it falls into a body of water, it could be in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, but this does not diminish its danger, as it could cause a tsunami if it falls near the coast.
How much would the impact on solid ground affect? The mentioned source presented Betts' statement that explained that “if you put it over Paris, London, or New York, it basically wipes out the entire city and some of the surrounding areas”. An aerial explosion would be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
Despite the alarm that a potential impact of the asteroid 2024 YR4 against Earth may cause, the good news is that experts say the likelihood of this happening is only 1.6%. The UN calculated the impact possibility at just over 1.5%, then recalculated it at 2.3%. NASA provided a similar percentage with a 2.27% risk.