The famous forecaster and election predictor Nate Silver said that these elections are “purely unpredictable” after a weekend with many polls. According to the expert, the numbers from these polls were good “but not excellent” for either of the candidates, as his forecasting model showed that Harris was exactly winning 270 electoral votes one day before the election.
Close elections for the United States
Silver says "50-50 is the only responsible forecast", as survey data remains inconclusive on which candidate will win the election.
This weekend was very important for Harris' campaign, as it received a big boost when Ann Selzer, a highly respected pollster from Iowa, revealed that the vice president is leading Trump by three points in the Hawkeye state.
There wouldn't be a tie, but there would be small differences.
Ann Selzer has a very respectable track record, as she is always the most accurate about political decisions and indicates that in Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, Harris would win by 293 votes.
According to The Economist's survey, Harris will get 270 electoral votes and Trump 268, matching Silver and the polling firm.
"The betting odds model used by data scientist Tom Miller also estimates that Trump will win exactly 270 electoral votes, although this figure is lower than the overwhelming majority of over 300 votes he predicted less than a week ago," explains Newsweek.com.
Kalshi Predictor
On October 29th, Kalshi had the former president winning with 64 percent and Harris with 36 percent. However, Trump's chances decreased to 56 and Harris rose to 44 percent.
Just hours away from knowing the new president of the United States, the atmosphere in the country becomes tense and the decisions will be defined by independent voters.