It is still not entirely clear what the new German government will look like, and it is likely to take weeks before coalition negotiations between Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) alliance and other parties reach an agreement and Merz becomes chancellor.
PUBLICIDAD
However, judging by his campaign statements, Merz will take Germany in a different direction than the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and even different from the Germany that Angela Merkel, also from the CDU, led for 16 years, until 2021.
PUBLICIDAD
For example, last month, Merz pressed (unsuccessfully) the German parliament to pass new migration measures with the support of the far-right party Alternative for Germany. This marked a clear departure from Merkel’s promise to welcome refugees.
But many other aspects are under scrutiny with a possible 180-degree turn in Germany’s policy in areas ranging from nuclear energy and a more aggressive stance towards China, to plans to reignite the Franco-German axis to boost trade with the European Union.
The list is long and ranges from areas such as defense, medio ambiente, mobility, commerce, agriculture, trade, financial services, technology, and health, among others.
For Jesús López Almejo, an analyst in geopolitics and international relations, and a researcher at the National Council of Humanities, Sciences, and Technologies (Mexico), Germany has shifted to the right because it is seeking economic answers to the slowdown and subsequent recession it has experienced over the last two years.
Moreover, consider that the average voter in Germany, upon seeing that the current government did not address their needs, opted for those who promised to resolve them.
Days before the elections, which took place this Sunday, Merz issued a stern warning that Europe must be ready to defend itself without the United States, and that if he won, he would hold security talks with the United Kingdom and France, the two European nuclear powers. Additionally, he stated that he would implement broad and large-scale policies to expand Germany’s defense industry.
On the other hand, a government led by Merz will place less emphasis on climate change than the Scholz coalition. Merz expressed his concern during the election campaign about the impact of climate policy on businesses, promised to prioritize economic growth above all other concerns, and led a call to dismantle several EU ecological regulations.
In commercial matters, he could adopt a firmer stance with Russia and China and revive old friendships with other European Union leaders. Here Merz has a lot of work ahead if he wants to link the German export economy with regions and countries of global growth. He acknowledges that a functional Franco-German axis can create more trade agreements, more certainty for businesses, and eventually, a stronger Europe.
Merz is inheriting a recession-hit economy and Germany’s industrial giants are reeling and cutting jobs. Merz is expected to take action. His party’s manifesto called for champions of “Made in Germany.”
To delve deeper into Friedrich Merz’s victory and its implications for Germany, we discussed in more detail with Professor Jesús López Almejo.
1. Friedrich Merz, a conservative, won the elections in Germany and a far-right party is now the second political force in the country. What does this tell us?
–Germany has shifted to the right because it is seeking economic answers to the slowdown and subsequent recession it has experienced over the past two years as a result of its rivalry with Russia and the subsequent commercial and economic disconnection.
As usually happens cyclically during economic crises, xenophobia takes hold of people and migrants are blamed for the additional ills that this brings, such as lack of employment, low wages, or insecurity.
The average voter, upon seeing that the current government does not meet their needs, opts for political options that promise to resolve them. That is what we are seeing right now in Germany.
2. La derecha suma otro líder en el mundo, otro país. ¿Debe ser esto motivo de preocupación o alarma?
“This is cyclical. Germany is the country that has shouldered the most European economic aid for Ukraine, and it is the most affected by the energy crisis stemming from being dragged by the Biden administration into an indirect war against Russia, which from the start was seen as unwinnable."
3. It seems that we like to talk in terms of left or right, conservatives or liberals, etc. Is this how we should view or think every time there are elections in any country?
“The analysis is more complex than just the left-right or conservative-liberal duality. However, both dualities are analytical categories that help us identify frequencies, causalities, and correlations.”
For example: it never hurts to remember that the conservadores aim to maintain an order that benefits a few over the majority. On the other hand, liberales are defined as those who seek to break with a restrictive order and broaden horizons in a multifactorial way.
However, it would also be necessary to specify these definitions by context, dominant ideologies, or sectors.
4. One of Merz’s first statements was to criticize President Donald Trump’s stance on the conflict in Ukraine. He also said that he desires real European independence from the United States. What do you think about that?
–The response from Merz is populist and lacks substantial support. To begin with, Merz was employed and linked to the interests of one of the largest investment funds in the world, BlackRock. On the other hand, having disconnected from Russia by their own will, Germany needs large-scale energy resources and for its automotive, steel and aluminum, railway, and technology industries to remain competitive.
Germany’s survival as an economic power or its downfall depends on the United States. The mere imposition of tariffs on strategic German sectors or a halt in the purchase of cars is enough for the United States to shake Germany. Additionally, Merz has developed an extremely anti-Russian rhetoric to the point of threatening to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine to strike deep into Russia.
Without military assistance from the United States, Germany would be quickly subdued by Russia with severe damage similar to that of World War II; something that has been avoided in Europe for decades.