For the first time in history, the United Nations Organization (UN) activated the Planetary Security Protocol due to the possibility of the asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
The European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Center reported that they estimate the asteroid to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter.
Rarely in history have asteroids had an average 1% probability of impacting our planet, YR4 exceeded this percentage.
But What is the real danger of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth? Astrophysicist Rodrigo González Peinado explained on his account X @rodrigogpeinado, that the possibility of this immense rock impacting the planet is 1.6%. He urged not to be swayed by sensationalism, inviting to be optimistic and rather, look at the 98.4% probability that it will not reach Earth.
Clarín reported that although the UN initially calculated the possibility of impact at just over 1.5%, they later recalculated it to be 2.3%. NASA also estimated a similar percentage at 2.27% risk, and there is also a possibility that the collision date could change from December 22nd to January 22nd, 2033.
Danger level of asteroid 2024 YR4
González Peinado detailed that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a size between 40 and 100 meters, with a mass of about 200,000 tons, classifying it as a level 3 on the Torino Scale. This implies the danger of a Near-Earth Object (NEO) and the potential consequences of its impact.
“It is a scale, from 0 to 10, where 0 represents no danger and 10, a guaranteed collision capable of causing a global catastrophe that puts civilization and life at risk,” he pointed out, adding that “no discovered NEO has exceeded level 4 on this scale.”
It was indicated that a level 3 implies the attention of astronomers and a possible collision with localized destruction within a 50 km radius, although it is normal for new observations to lower its level to 0.
"In the event that it eventually impacts, it would most likely fall into the ocean," he referred.
More about asteroid 2024 YR4
The astrophysicist Rodrigo González Peinado recalled that the asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System), a collection of various telescopes distributed around the world covering the entire sky.
On December 27, 2024, the Chilean ATLAS station, located in Río Hurtado, discovered 2024 YR4 moving away from Earth as a result of the specialized monitoring it undergoes, which allows for the easy detection of its orbit.
The 2024 YR4 is an Apollo-type asteroid, which means that it crosses Earth's orbit and its semimajor axis is greater than that of our planet.
"The Apollos are the largest group within Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)," explained González Peinado, who detailed that it is known that 2024 YR4 passed 800,000 km from Earth on December 25, 2024, more than twice the distance between the planet and the Moon."
The closest approach of the massive rock will be in 2032 and that’s when the alarms will sound.