The world has become a board of extreme tension, where different global and regional powers coexist in more complex and unpredictable environments. In fact, some consider that we are in a new Cold War.
PUBLICIDAD
The concept of the Cold War is typically used to describe a period of contemporary history that spans from the end of World War II to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991.
PUBLICIDAD
It was a period marked by systemic bipolarity. That is, by the confrontation between two superpowers - the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR) - and their respective blocs. The conflict was expressed in political-military, economic, ideological, and cultural dimensions, although there was no direct confrontation between the two superpowers due to the availability of nuclear weapons.
Just as there are those who consider that we are living a new Cold War, there are others who see current international relations from different perspectives. And from there we start with four points of view.
1. According to the Harvard International Review magazine, the growing relationship between China and Russia has attracted the attention of many and sparked rumors of a "new Cold War." With the expansion of NATO to include Sweden and Finland in 2023 and 2024, many experts have raised the possibility of a growing global division.
However, the publication does not consider that we have reached that point. In fact, it concludes that perhaps "Cold War" may not be the most accurate term to define the alliance between Russia and China and their relationship with the world, since although both countries are considered the main threats to the stability of the West, the reality is more nuanced than a simple dichotomous dynamic.
2. On the other hand, Eduardo Araya, director of the History and Politics Observatory at the Pontifical Catholic University of Valparaíso, states in another article that the use of the term Cold War has become fashionable again in recent years, although there is currently no ideological polarity, since capitalism is a shared model.
It also comments that the system is not bipolar but multipolar, and that China does not behave like a revolutionary power (aspiring to radically transform the system, as was the case with the USSR). China, despite the growth of its military spending, is not yet in a position to challenge American hegemony in the military field.
An article recently published in the online newspaper El Mundo points out that in some parts of the world, the Cold War never ended, citing conflicts such as China vs. Taiwan, the division of Korea, the Arab-Israeli conflict, conflicts in different regions in central and eastern Africa, socialist allies of the USSR who fled to the West to seek refuge in the European Union and NATO (many of whom, including Ukraine, have had longstanding differences with Russia), etc.
However, the authors specify that in 2019 two professors from the University of Southern California, Steven Lamy and Robert D. English, coined the term "New Cold War" as the new battleground where new conflicts (and/or the reproduction of old ones) were going to take place, marked by globalization, global warming, poverty, inequality, and the rising populism.
"According to journalist Alberto Rojas from El Mundo, the West emerged from the Cold War triumphantly promising a world of peace and freedom under the auspices of democracy, but it has not fulfilled those promises."
4. Finally, we spoke with Mariano Aguirre, journalist and foreign policy analyst, who claims that we are already in another Cold War and shared some viewpoints in that regard.
It should be noted that he is the author of the book Cold War 2.0 (2023), in which he presents the complex and dangerous tensions in the current world, especially between major powers, and among emerging countries, in the context of a global climate crisis, threats to democracy, and profound inequality.
Q: Why do you consider that we are in a new Cold War?
-There are a series of common elements. The main one is that during the first Cold War, the major political, economic, and especially military powers maintained a very high level of tension among themselves for several decades.
Those tensions were displaced, in many cases to indirect wars and conflicts in the Global South, which we used to call the third world. However, they never collided in direct armed conflict. In this new Cold War, we are experiencing a similar situation.
Today we have Russia, as the heir of the former Soviet Union, which is no longer a major power; China, as a rising major power; United States as a major power, with issues and some degree of decline; and the European Union, which is not a military power, but an economic and political one.
They maintain tensions among themselves in various ways and have not entered into direct armed conflict, but they are carrying out a political, commercial, economic, energy, and military conflict through a proxy war, the war in Ukraine.
Q: What are the main differences compared to the Cold War of the last century?
-The main difference is that the Cold War was fought between different economic systems.
Another difference is that while during the Cold War the Non-Aligned Movement was created, led especially by India at that time. Today, instead of non-aligned countries, we have emerging countries, or medium or regional powers, such as Brazil and Turkey, among others.
A third factor is that a few decades ago, the United States was at the height of its hegemonic power over the Western world, while now it is in a situation of internal, political, constitutional, and social crisis, and has lost much of its power in the world, especially in areas where it used to be the central hegemonic power such as the Middle East or Latin America.
Q: Has the world order designed after World War II stopped working?
- The international order is in a paradoxical situation. It has not been successful, but it has not completely failed either. It is criticized from all sides, but without that order, the international system would be worse off. Part of its failure is due to the fact that it has rules that the most powerful countries have not always respected. They have only enforced them when it serves their interests.
It is an order based on the principle of sovereignty and non-interference, although countries like the United States, among others, have intervened repeatedly in countries of the Global South. It is a system that works better for the benefit of the most powerful countries. This is why emerging countries are calling for reforms with concrete measures.
The Berlin Wall
The Berlin Wall was a security wall that formed part of the inter-German border from August 13, 1961, to November 9, 1989. It surrounded and separated the city area that was part of the West German Federal Republic (FRG), West Berlin, from the capital of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), East Berlin. It is the most well-known symbol of the Cold War and the division of Germany.