JERUSALEM (AP) — The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was a relief for the tumultuous Middle East: the first significant sign of progress in the region since the war began over a year ago. However, for Palestinians in Gaza and the families of hostages held in the territory, the news seemed to mark an even darker period of the conflict.
For them, it was another missed opportunity to end the fighting that has been going on for almost 14 months.
The Palestinians were hoping that any ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah would also include a truce in Gaza. On the other hand, the families of the people kidnapped by the militants led by Hamas who attacked southern Israel in October 2023 wanted the agreement to also involve the return of their loved ones. However, the ceasefire only applied to the fighting in Lebanon.
What are the differences between the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza?
Although they are linked, both conflicts have been very different. In Lebanon, Israel's goal was to expel Hezbollah from the shared border and put an end to the political-paramilitary group's attacks against northern Israel. The ceasefire that came into effect on Wednesday aims to achieve this.
In Gaza, Israel's goals are broader. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Hamas must be completely destroyed and that Israel must have permanent control over various parts of the territory.
Months of conversations have not managed to make Netanyahu retract those demands or convince Hamas to release the hostages on those terms.
For Palestinians in Gaza, that means continuing to suffer under an Israeli campaign that has demolished much of the territory and has displaced almost the entire population from their homes. Hundreds of thousands of people are starving and living in miserable tent camps as the second winter of the war brings cold rains and floods.
What will happen now with Gaza?
Palestinians now fear that the Israeli army may turn its attention back to Gaza, something Netanyahu made clear when announcing the ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday.
Israeli troops are already engaged in fierce fighting in northern Gaza, where a two-month offensive has cut off most aid and experts warn that a famine may be underway.
By signing the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah reversed its long-held stance that it would not cease its cross-border attacks unless Israel ends the war in Gaza.
This also leaves Hamas, whose capabilities have already been severely damaged by the Israeli offensive, fighting alone. In an interview conducted on Monday, Hamas official Osama Hamdan appeared to accept Hezbollah's new stance.
"Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah has been by our people's side and has made significant sacrifices," Hamdan said to the Lebanese broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, which many consider politically aligned with Hezbollah.
Khalil Sayegh, a Palestinian analyst, said that the ceasefire could make Hamas even less popular in Gaza, by demonstrating the failure of its bet that its attack on Israel would rally other militant groups to the fight. "It is a moment where we can see that Hamas's message becomes weaker and weaker, as they struggle to justify their strategy to the public," Sayegh said.
The United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said on Tuesday that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could help force Hamas to negotiate because it would show the group that "the cavalry is not on the way."
But Hamas experts predict that the group would only entrench itself on the battlefield and in negotiations.
They fear for the Israeli hostages
Dozens of Israelis crowded a major highway in Tel Aviv on Tuesday night, protesting for the return of the hostages as the country awaited to hear if a ceasefire had been agreed upon in Lebanon.
About 100 hostages are still in Gaza, at least one-third of whom are believed to be dead.
Ricardo Grichener, uncle of 23-year-old hostage Omer Wenkert, said that the ceasefire with Hezbollah showed how the Israeli government openly despises hostages.
Although Israel has inflicted greater damage on Hamas in Gaza than on Hezbollah in Lebanon, it said that “the decision to postpone an agreement in Gaza and release the hostages is not based on the same military success criteria”.