SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Tropical storm Rafael was passing through the west of Jamaica on Tuesday and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane heading towards Cuba.
The storm was located 70 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica in the morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving northwest at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center of the United States.
The center said it expected a "steady to rapid intensification" over the next 24 to 36 hours. It was expected to continue passing through Jamaica until Tuesday afternoon, be near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night, and make landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.
"The center said, 'Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes close to the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before making landfall in Cuba.'"
On Tuesday morning, the Civil Defense of Cuba sent a message through social media to Cubans urging them to prepare as soon as possible and to stay in a fixed location when the storm makes landfall. On Monday, authorities stated that they had issued an evacuation order for 37,000 people in the easternmost part of Cuba, in the province of Guantánamo, due to the severe weather.
There is a hurricane alert for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm alert was issued for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, as well as the Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas.
"The storm is currently in an atmospheric and oceanic environment quite conducive for its strengthening," said the hurricane center.
In the Cayman Islands, authorities closed schools and government offices while urging residents to prepare. Long lines were reported at grocery stores as the storm approached.
Rafael is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands late on Tuesday, and authorities have closed schools and government offices while urging the population to prepare.
Jamaica also closed as a precaution, and the outer winds of the storm were already hitting the island on Monday night.
"We ask all Jamaicans to remain vigilant," said the Minister of Local Government and Community Development, Desmond McKenzie.
The storm is bad news for Cuba. The island is barely recovering from Hurricane Oscar, which hit the island about two weeks ago after making landfall in eastern Cuba, killing at least six people. The storm also coincided with a widespread blackout on the island.
Forecasters warned that Rafael would unleash heavy rains in the western Caribbean that could lead to flooding and landslides, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and up to 10 inches in some areas of Jamaica and parts of Cuba.
Strong rains were also expected to extend northward to Florida and nearby areas of the southeastern United States during the middle and end of the week. Additionally, some tornadoes were expected on Wednesday over the Keys and the extreme southwest of the Florida mainland.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States predicted that the 2024 hurricane season would likely be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast included up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
An average hurricane season in the Atlantic produces 14 named storms, seven of which are hurricanes and three of category 3 or higher.