Only once in US presidential election history has there been a tie: it was in 1800 between Thomas Jefferson, who was eventually elected by the House of Representatives, and Aaron Burr. The current contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is so close that some predictive models result in a tie of 269 electoral votes each side, although the chances of that happening are still low.
According to the vast majority of analyses, Harris has a base of 225 electors, between safe and very likely states, while Trump's floor is 219. There are only 7 states considered undecided (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada) and among them, they will distribute 94 votes.
How can a tie occur between Harris and Trump?
According to ABC News and their projections site 538, there are four scenarios in which the current vice president and the former president could tie.
One scenario would occur if Harris wins in Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Nevada (6), plus the Second District of Nebraska (1), while Trump takes Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), and North Carolina (16).
Another formula is if the Democrats win the "Blue Wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and the Republicans end up ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, plus Nebraska's 2nd District. But the latest polls show the Democratic candidate leading in Omaha.
What happens if there is a tie between Harris and Trump?
The Constitution of the United States establishes that in case of a tie 269-269, it will be the House of Representatives, which will also be fully elected on Tuesday, November 5, that will determine who will be the president between 2025 and 2029.
But the 435 elected representatives do not vote, instead, through a unique system the delegations of each state (mixing Democrats and Republicans) cast a vote according to the preferences of the majority. To win, a candidate must obtain the majority of state delegations (26).
According to the current composition of the House of Representatives, Republicans would have an advantage in 26 delegations and Democrats would obtain 22, with two states (Minnesota and North Carolina) being tied. However, this data serves only as a reference, as the members of the House of Representatives elected on November 5 would be the ones voting.