The presidential elections in the United States are special, as the candidate with the majority of preferences at the national level does not win, but rather the one who has more votes in the electoral college. In 2020, for example, Hillary Clinton received 65.8 million votes compared to Trump’s 62.9 million, but in the electoral college, the Republican outpaced the Democrat 304-227 and won the White House.
Therefore, surveys like the one from NBC News that show Kamala Harris with a national lead of 49% against Donald Trump's 44% do not necessarily predict the victory of the current Vice President of the United States.
Of the 50 states that contribute votes to the Electoral College, plus the District of Columbia (Washington), a large majority show a clear inclination towards Harris or Trump, and therefore specialists have determined that there are only seven undecided states that will ultimately decide the next president of the United States.
What do the polls say in the key states for the United States elections?
One of the most prestigious surveys in the US, that of the New York Times/Siena College published this Monday, shows that Donald Trump has an advantage in the “battleground” states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
The most striking thing is what is happening in Arizona, a state won by Joe Biden in 2020 where in August Harris had a 5% lead, but now Trump is ahead in the polls 50%-45%. The change is surprising and a warning for the Democratic candidacy, as it seems to be losing support among Latino voters.
In Georgia, the state that surprisingly favored the Democratic candidate four years ago, the advantage is also for Trump, 49-45.
Things are tighter in North Carolina, where the Republican magnate has a slight lead of 49-47 in the Times/Siena poll.
Can Kamala Harris win without these states?
Harris could still win without North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, but her margin of error would be zero.
The other key states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada (which were not surveyed this time by Times/Siena) and the other surveys show that Kamala Harris is leading there.
The Vice President of the United States seems to have a base of 225 electoral votes and if she wins in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, she would reach 275, surpassing the 270 mark necessary to achieve the presidency of the United States.
But the current scenario and recent polls only confirm that the United States is facing one of the closest elections in its history.